Jan 07, 2025
2024/25 Argentina Soybeans 92% Planted, Weather is Worrisome
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Scattered showers over the weekend favored western and southwestern regions with most of the country remaining dry. The rains led to only minor improvements in soil moisture. Significant dryness remains across much of Argentina leading to moisture stress for both corn and soybeans. The forecast is calling for limited showers this week in western and southern areas with only limited showers next week.
Argentina has been lucky thus far this growing season with enough timely rains to maintain normal crop development, but it looks like their luck may be running out. There is now less rain in the forecast and hotter temperatures just as the crop's water demand increases.
The 2024/25 Argentina soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 53.0 million tons with a neutral to lower bias. Some of the early planted soybeans are starting to flower, but most of the crop is in vegetative development and at that stage, soybeans can withstand dryer weather as long as it is not too prolonged. Having that said, if rainfall does not return within about two weeks, the soybean yield prospects will probably start to decline.
Soybeans were 92.7% planted in Argentina as of late last week which represents an advance of 8% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans are 99% planted with 85-95% planted in southern Argentina and 70-75% planted in far northern Argentina. Approximately 86% of the double crop soybeans have been planted and 32% of the early planted soybeans are flowering. Below is the soybean planting progress in Argentina for January 2, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Soybeans in Argentina are rated 4% poor/very poor, 43% fair, and 53% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 5% from the prior week. Soil moisture for soybeans is rated 19% short/very short and 81% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 7% from the prior week. Below is the soybean rating in Argentina for January 2, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 0 (2) | 54 (36) | 2 (16) | 98 (84) |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 0 (2) | 64 (36) | 2 (16) | 97 (84) |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 1 (4) | 65 (30) | 6 (13) | 94 (86) |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 (3) | 66 (37) | 5 (6) | 95 (91) |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 4 (3) | 58 (45) | 12 (10) | 88 (90) |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 4 (3) | 58 (50) | 19 (6) | 81 (92) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages