Jan 08, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 171.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall in Brazil continues to benefit the soybeans in central and east-central Brazil with less amounts in southern Brazil, especially in Rio Grande do Sul. The forecast is calling for more rain in central and east-central Brazil, less in southern Brazil. Rio Grande do Sul is the state to watch in Brazil especially the western and southwestern part of the state which is the driest. Dryness concerns are also starting to creep into western Santa Catarina and southwestern Parana. Rio Grande do Sul accounts for approximately 13% of Brazil's soybean production.
Farmers in Brazil have started to harvest some of their early maturing irrigated soybeans in central and south-central Brazil. Less than 1% of Brazil's soybeans have been harvested thus far. Harvesting of some of the dryland soybeans should start within about 10 days.
Most farmers in Brazil are optimistic about their soybean yields due to beneficial weather with many farmers predicting record yields. The one area of concern in Brazil is a dryer pattern in southern Brazil, especially the state of Rio Grande do Sul but also western Santa Catarina, and southwestern Parana. The forecast for that region remains dryer than normal, so that is an area to watch.
The 2024/25 soybeans estimate was left unchanged this week at 171.0 million tons. Had it not been for the dryer weather in southern Brazil, I might have increased the Brazil soybean estimate a little. The state of Rio Grande do Sul accounts for approximately 13% of Brazil's soybean production, so the question now is can good yields in central Brazil compensate for any potential losses in southern Brazil?
The answer to that question is yes if rain returns to southern Brazil within a couple of weeks. If the hot and dry pattern persists in southern Brazil for more than a couple of weeks, then the answer to that question may be no. Stay tuned.
Mato Grosso - The early soybean harvest has started in Mato Grosso, but it has been limited to irrigated soybeans. The early harvest of some of the dryland soybeans should start within 10 days.
Goias - The technical director of the Institute to Strengthen Agriculture and Livestock in Goias (Ifag), Leonardo Machado, indicated that farmers have started to harvest some of their early maturing irrigated soybeans. Within 10 days, farmers will start harvesting some of their dryland soybeans.
He explained that the average yield last year was 58 sacks per hectare (51.8 bu/ac) but it should increase to a range of 63 to 65 sacks per hectare this year (56.3 to 58.1 bu/ac). He estimates the cost of production at 40 sacks per hectare (35.7 bu/ac). Farmers who own their land will make a nice profit this year, but margins will be tighter for anyone who rents land. In Goias, rent is probably in the range of about 10 sacks per hectare.
Rio Grande do Sul - Farmers in the state have planted 97% of their intended soybeans, which represents an advance of 1% for the week. The conclusion of the soybean planting has been slowed due to a lack of soil moisture and harvesting of other crops before they planted double crop soybeans.
Emater is estimating the soybean acreage in the state at 6,811,344 hectares (16.82 million acres) with a statewide yield of 3,179 kg/ha (47.3 bu/ac) and a production of 22-23 million tons or about 13% of Brazil's total soybean production.
Municipality of Santo Angelo in northwestern Rio Grande do Sul - Producers in the municipality of Santo Angelo in northwestern Rio Grande do Sul are starting to express their concern about dry conditions. It has been dry in the region for about 30 days and there is little rain in the forecast for the next 15 days. Temperatures have warmed up to the upper 90's °F.
According to the director of the Rural Union of Santo Angelo, soybeans are shorter than normal as they start to flower - 30-40 cm or 10-15 inches. The soybeans are starting to exhibit moisture stress, but it is too early to quantify any potential yield losses. The corn in the region was hurt by 15 days of dry weather in November when the crop was filling ears. Losses for that corn is probably in the range of 20-50% depending on the stage of development.