Jan 30, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 125.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 125.0 million tons and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward. The corn estimate this week was changed to a neutral to lower bias due to the possibility of delayed planting of the safrinha corn.
Safrinha corn planting in Brazil continues to get off to a very slow start due to delayed soybean harvesting. According to AgRural, 2.2% of the safrinha corn was planted as of late last week compared to 11.4% last year. The ideal planting window in central Brazil will close in a little more than three weeks and it is possible that 30-40% of the safrinha corn will be planted after the ideal window closes.
Farmers in Brazil will plant their safrinha corn through the end of February due to the favorable corn economics. The difficult decision to plant or not to plant will come in early March. If the soil moisture is good in early March and the forecast is calling for an extended rainy season, farmers will plant until about mid-March. Conversely, if the soil moisture declines in early March and the forecast is calling for an early end to the rainy season, farmers may be hesitant to plant corn in early March.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 1.1% planted as of late last week compared to 11.2% last year and 11.1% average.
Below is the safrinha corn planting pace in Mato Grosso for January 24, 2025 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics.
