Feb 05, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Soybeans 10% Harvested vs. 17% Last Year
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rains continue to fall in central Brazil especially the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais. The states of Parana, Sao Paulo, and Santa Catarina received lighter amounts over the weekend. There were a few dry days last week in Mato Grosso, but the forecast continues to call for nearly daily rainfall in central Brazil. According to the state government of Mato Grosso, 45 municipalities in the state have reported damage due to the heavy rainfall (see next article).
The situation in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul is just the opposite. The state has only received a fraction of its normal rainfall over the last 1-2 months and the forecast is calling for generally dry conditions this week. Dryness is also a concern in western Santa Catarina, western Parana, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul.
Brazil's 2024/25 soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 170.0 million tons and I have a neutral bias going forward. The estimates in Brazil generally range from 166 to 173 million tons with some analysts increasing their estimate and some analysts lowering their estimates.
The 2024/25 Brazil soybeans were 10.3% harvested as of late last week compared to 16.7% last year and 13.9% average according to Patria AgroNogocios. This represents an advance of 6.4% for the week. Harvesting in Mato Grosso continues to be slower than average at 12.2%, while Parana is ahead of average at 22%.
Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported that 12.2% have been harvested as of late last week compared to 39.3% last year and 25.3% average. This represents an advance of 7.8% for the week. The fastest harvest pace is in western Mato Grosso where 16.4% of the soybeans have been harvested compared to 63.3% last year. Below is the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso as of January 31, 2025 from Imea.
Parana - Soybeans in Parana are 22% harvested compared to 22% last year and 10% average. As of earlier last week, soybeans in Parana were 7% flowering, 57% filling pods, 36% maturing and rated 4% poor, 17% average, and 79% good.
Rio Grande do Sul - The state continues to suffer under hot and dry conditions which has been particularly harmful for the later planted soybeans. The forecast for this week is calling for temperatures as high as 40°C (104°F) with little chance of rain especially in the western half of the state.